Airline Cancellations a Growing Concern for Summer Travel

American Airlines Suffering Worst

One dark cloud on an otherwise strong Memorial Day weekend for airlines was a rise in cancellations, with a total of 2,800 flights canceled over the holiday weekend. Similarweb data shows that consumers are concerned, as reflected in rising keyword searches on “airline cancellations”.

Key Takeaways

• Despite strong Memorial Day weekend demand, airline cancellations were a notable negative for the holiday, largely caused by pilot shortages- 2,800 flights were canceled over the long holiday weekend
• Consumers are understandably concerned about cancellations, and a keyword search on airline cancellations shows a sharp increase in search traffic- spiking between 34% and 61% depending on the search term used
• Visits to airline cancellation pages grew 19% in April 2022, year-over-year
• With airlines facing pilot shortages, cancellations are likely to be a mainstay of the summer holiday season, despite strong travel demand

Keyword Search Shows Consumers Concerned About Cancellations

Airline travel likely rebounded, based on Similarweb estimates of airline website traffic. However, cancellations are also rising, driven by pilot and other key employee shortages. According to airline flight tracker FlightAware, there were a total of 2,800 canceled flights from Thursday, May 27 through Monday, May 30, or about 2% of total airline flight schedules.

Consumers are notably concerned about airline cancellations. This is reflected in a keyword search on airline cancellations, showing rising traffic across the board for most U.S. carriers, as well as for airline cancellations in general for the past 28 days through May 30.

A look at the Similarweb chart below shows that keyword searches on “airline cancellations” rose between 34% and 61% depending on the airline in question, with the biggest increase for “American Airline Flight Cancellations” and “Flight Cancellation American Airlines”. This is not surprising given the fact that visits to American’s cancellation page are significantly higher than for peers.

Pilot Shortages Likely Driving Airline Cancellations

What’s driving cancellations? While airline traffic has recovered domestically from pre-pandemic levels, the number of pilots has not recovered. Airlines encouraged many pilots to retire and laid off others, and it’s not an easy or quick process to replace them.

This impact is likely to lead to airlines flying reduced schedules this summer versus what they would have ideally wanted, leading to less capacity than needed. On top of that, the severe lack of pilots will likely cause cancellations at most U.S. carriers in 2H22.

Cancellation-Related Web Traffic on the Rise

Consumer visits to airline cancellation pages are an indicator of total airline cancellations, as a majority of travelers affected by cancellations will visit one of these airline website segments. Traffic to these segments as a percentage of total airline visits has risen over time, according to Similarweb data, with American Airlines seeing the worst performance with 3.3% of total visitors in April 2022 visiting the cancellation page, versus 2.1% for Delta, and 2% for United and Southwest.

A look at the chart below highlights changes in the share of traffic to airline cancellation sites over the past year.

Traveler Volume Has Recovered, More Cancellations Could Make Summer Travel Difficult

A look at TSA security checkpoint throughput traffic shows that passengers are out there traveling in numbers similar to before the pandemic. Travel pre-pandemic had a notable hassle factor, not limited to long security lines, tarmac delays, and long lines to check-in at the airport. Add to that the recent slew of pilot shortages and the summer looks set to be another difficult period for airline passengers.

The chart below shows TSA checkpoint traffic from January 2020 to May 31, 2022.

Other Evidence Points to Strong Travel Demand this Summer

On June 1, 2022, Delta Air Lines raised guidance for 2Q 2022 saying that higher airfares and strong demand should lead to adjusted revenues “fully restored to 2019 levels”. On June 2, 2022, Sabre, an airline booking company that is a good indicator for corporate travel, reported that net air bookings in May 2002 recovered to 58% of 2019 levels, a good sign that corporate travel is starting to rise finally. These two news items also highlight the strength of demand that consumers are likely to face in summer 2022.

Conclusion

If the recent large number of cancellations is any indicator, this summer may be difficult for passengers already coping with high airfares, a likely return to long security and other lines, and a general increase in hassles at the airport.

Methodology

Disclaimer: All data, reports and other materials provided or made available by Similarweb are based on data obtained from third parties, including estimations and extrapolations based on such data. Similarweb shall not be responsible for the accuracy of the materials and shall have no liability for any decision by any third party based in whole or in part on the materials.

by Jim Corridore

Senior Analyst

Jim provides insights across multiple sectors. With 30 years on Wall Street and numerous awards for stock-picking, he is a SUNY Albany graduate.