Tesla Conversion Weakening

A look at the conversion funnel for Tesla’s various models in the United States shows that Q3 converted visits dropped sharply from Q2 and from last year’s Q3.

• Similarweb data shows Q3 conversion in the United States is down 56% vs. prior year (excluding Cybertruck), and down 35% vs. Q2.
  • Conversion rates could be an indicator of future deliveries and revenues, so a quarterly sequential slowdown could be a cause for concern.
• September 2022 conversion was particularly weak, down 52% from August and down 66% from 2021’s September.
• The company announced Q3 deliveries of 343k on October 2, growth of 42% year over year, and up 35% over Q2.
• Tesla reports Q3 2022 earnings on October 19th after market close.

Conversion Data Weakened for both Q3 and September 2022

Similarweb data provides a unique look into the Tesla sales funnel across each car brand. The data shows traffic to Tesla sales checkout webpage and is a strong indicator of future sales.

Similarweb’s estimates on Tesla conversions ahead of its Q3 earnings report on October 19th appear to have weakened significantly. Against a backdrop of already reported Q3 deliveries, which were up 42% YoY, and up 35% over Q2, conversion trends look markedly different.

Using U.S. desktop data, conversions of all models (except Cybertruck) were down 66% YoY, and were down 52% versus Q2. We exclude Cybertruck here due to the absurdly low $100 deposit to reserve a truck, which we do not think is indicative of real demand. Also the timing of delivery of the Cybertruck is nebulous and continually shifting.

Part of the reason for declining conversion could be consumer concerns about inflation and the global and U.S. economy. They could be deferring purchase decisions until they feel more confident about the economy and the future. It remains to be seen whether these conversion results will continue to weaken in future periods, and if they are the sign of a broader drop in demand for the company’s EVs.

The Similarweb Insights & Communications team is available to pull additional or updated data on request for the news media (journalists are invited to write to press@similarweb.com). When citing our data, please reference Similarweb as the source and link back to the most relevant blog post or similarweb.com/blog/insights/.

Methodology

Disclaimer: All data, reports and other materials provided or made available by Similarweb are based on data obtained from third parties, including estimations and extrapolations based on such data. Similarweb shall not be responsible for the accuracy of the materials and shall have no liability for any decision by any third party based in whole or in part on the materials.

by Jim Corridore

Senior Analyst

Jim provides insights across multiple sectors. With 30 years on Wall Street and numerous awards for stock-picking, he is a SUNY Albany graduate.