Black Friday Predictions for 2022

Black Friday is arguably the biggest shopping day worldwide. Boasting BIG sales and BIGGER spending, it’s underlined in every retailer’s calendar. So, with rising inflation, increased cost of living, global supply chain issues, and potentially the first dip in the ecommerce bubble, what does Black Friday 2022 have in-store? (Pun intended).

After speaking to our expert Lucas Pettinato and digging into some data myself, we have five predictions ahead of this year’s biggest shopping bonanza.

2021 Black Friday Recap

Before diving into what you can expect this year, let’s use Similarweb’s Shopper Intelligence platform to have a quick look back at what happened in 2021 on Amazon as an example.

Can you spot Black Friday from last November?

Just kidding, I know it’s very obvious. As you can see profits and units sold took a major uptick on Black Friday and then again on Cyber Monday.

On Black Friday, units sold grew from 42 million to a whopping 70.4 million overnight. Similarly, revenue jumped from $1.4 billion to a jaw-dropping $2.6 billion.

Here’s a breakdown of which categories drove all that cash to Amazon.

Top Black Friday Predictions for 2022

1. The economic recession will halt YoY sales growth

Ok, hear us out here. Overall spending online is definitely up, but thanks to the current recession the rate of sales growth has slowed down. Take Amazon for example –  Amazon’s revenue is up about 25% and total unit sales are up about 8%.

However, the rate of growth and sales aren’t likely to be dramatic this Black Friday.

We still expect Black Friday to see a massive increase in revenue week over week, however, we don’t think overall spending in 2022 will be greater than it was in 2021.

Why?

The best way to predict online performance is to measure historical data against the current economic climate.

For example, online retailer Amazon saw a 21% YoY increase in Black Friday sales in 2020 during the height of the pandemic but then saw a 15% YoY decrease in Black Friday sales in 2021 as online shopping was no longer the only option during the holiday event. We predict that, given the current economic recession, Amazon as well as other major online retailers will see yet another YoY decrease in sales on Black Friday this year.

That said, the opposite is true for in-store sales. We expect to see in-store retail experiencing higher growth this year as more people return to in-store shopping.

Keep in mind, based on the current economic climate, people may shop around, in-store and online, and wait to purchase items until they find a good bargain.

2. On top: Clothing, electronics, and home items

Looking back on Prime Day 2022, we saw stalled growth in several core electronics categories, including key sellers like TVs and laptops. With that said, we expect to see surprises for popular purchases this November.

Looking at the YoY performance for several categories, two opposite trends emerge.

As consumers begin to return to pre-pandemic lifestyles, items like luggage, jewelry, and formal wear are expected to experience spikes with YTD revenues all up more than 100%.

Interestingly, with many people still spending more time at home due to the increased amount of people working remotely we also expect Home items like furniture and small kitchen appliances to be top sellers.

3. Bundles are back, big time.

Our pro tip for ecommerce sellers is to prepare product bundles for Black Friday 2022.

These types of offers are perfect for an event like Black Friday as it benefits both shoppers and sellers alike. Customers get multiple items at a reduced price while sellers gain exposure for their products and increase their average order value for the event. It’s a win-win.

We saw similar trends for back-to-school shopping this year with bundling and buying in bulk. Considering only a few months have passed between then and now, it’s fair to assume the same buying trends will continue.

But, don’t take our word for it. We have the data to back it up. Over the past six months searches and clicks for the keyword “bundle” have grown exponentially. Evidence below.

Read more: How To Create Profitable Amazon Bundles [7 Expert Tips]

4. Price matters as much (or more) than brand loyalty.

The most searched brands over the holidays are likely to be a mix of the usual culprits, as well as some unexpected newcomers.

Looking at October’s Prime Day results we can see consumers are still in love with brands like Apple, who claimed the top three searches for products with 2021 Apple Ipad, 2020 Apple Macbook Air Laptop, and Apple AirPods (2nd Generation). However, smaller names like CGK Unlimited and Vital Proteins also made it into the top products last month, so there’s no reason to expect any major change in shopping patterns.

When the economy is down, people are looking to save while they spend so price will matter as much, or more, than a brand name.

Here are our predictions for a few big categories:

Tech: Apple, Meta Quest, Sony, and Samsung as well as Amazon’s brands such as Ring, Amazon, and Alexa.

Home Appliances: Ninja, Philips Hue, Keurig,and Waterpik.

Toys and games: Roblox (whose gift cards will likely be a top seller).

Fashion: New Balance, Carhartt, Converse, Skechers, and Croc.

5. The discounts won’t disappoint.

You already know that the best way to predict what’s to come is to look at recent patterns. So, once again, we took a peek at the Amazon Prime Day data from 2022 to check out discounting strategies. It was very clear that discounts will vary dramatically between different categories and product price points.

What do we mean?

Electronics will tend to see the steepest discount given their relatively higher manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), while items on Amazon that tend to be lower priced or value-clothing and personal care brands offer discounts on average in the low to mid-teens.

Here’s a breakdown of what you can expect.

Get out of the red and into the black

Our predictions for 2022 Black Friday performance are based on this year’s general shopping trends, historical data, and, of course, a bit of expert know-how.

Similarweb Shopper Intelligence can give you the inside info you need to best prepare your brand for the big day. To learn about Amazon insights, schedule a demo of Shopper Intelligence today.

Further Reading:

Black Friday Statistics You Need to Know (2022)

10 Best Black Friday Marketing Tips: An Expert Round-Up

by Sarah Mehlman

Sr. Marketing Intelligence Specialist

Sarah creates engaging content with over 5 years of experience. She enjoys traveling, family time, baking, and Netflix. Sarah holds a psychology degree from Clark University and lives in Israel.