And Just Like That: Peloton Pre-Earnings Insights

We all saw or heard about that episode (no spoilers, I promise), and since then, it seems that Peloton cannot stay out of the news cycle riding up to its earnings announcement.

Peloton experienced media fallout more than once in 2021: a child fatality involving its Tread+, the company’s lack of immediate response, and supply chain issues causing long delivery delays. Plus, the fitness industry is seeing its customers shift back to in-person workouts, which has led Peloton to propose a temporary halt in production. And to counter the backdrop of economic decline, in early January, Peloton announced a free delivery-and-setup offer until Jan. 30 – something that before was part of the standard Peloton purchase.

Yet, all of this may not be as bad as it appears. Peloton is still a leader in its industry segment. The exercise equipment and media company may have some ground to regain, but never lost its foothold (despite what the stock price may say). Before the Peloton earnings report, let’s delve into the online performance with Similarweb alternative data.

Do you have an at-home gym?

Home gyms are not a new concept. Maybe you’ve seen ads for NordicTrack (est. 1975) or Bowflex (est. 1986). When Peloton debuted in 2013, the industry landscape began to transform. In 2018, new brands hit the market, including Tonal, Mirror, and Echelon. SoulCycle also rolled out its at-home bike in 2020.

In 2019, new year’s resolutions (Jan.) and the holiday season (Nov./Dec.), which topped off at 4.9 million and 7.3 million visits respectively, carried the peaks of web traffic for this subset of the at-home fitness industry. The rest of the year remained consistent throughout, averaging around 2.5 million monthly visits collectively.

And then the pandemic left gym rats to fend for themselves. Aside from the dip in February when resolutions were forgotten or simply ignored, the incline of web traffic climbed steadily, peaking in January 2021 with 18.4 million monthly visitors. The pandemic was a boon to the at-home fitness industry and to Peloton specifically, as it continued to pedal past its competitors.

Peloton still sets the bar

According to CNN Business, “The pandemic stock boom is over.” That, plus the shift back to in-person workouts, is going to affect Peloton’s bottom line. It’s not the only company that’s going to have to contend with developing a post-pandemic business plan and model. In January 2022, Netflix’s stock took a 24% nose dive as it admitted that its competition was starting to gain market share.

Let’s look at monthly unique web visitors over the past year. Peloton holds its position at the top of the list even during its tumultuous year and a steady decline in web traffic. Nordictrack.com trends with Peloton throughout 2021, but with 2 million fewer unique visitors per month.

Peloton’s payment trends

Peloton does appear to have had a relatively healthy holiday season and, despite growing competition for at-home fitness, its share of equipment checkouts is stable. Outgoing traffic from global OnePeloton sites to online payment solutions, such as Affirm and PayPal, represents new unit sales and Connected Fitness Product Revenue.

In the most recent quarter, outgoing payment traffic fell 22% vs. -43% the prior quarter, signaling improvement. Digital subscriber checkout visits also show stability against intensifying competition in the space.

What does it all mean?

While the post-pandemic economy remains uncertain, what we do know is what the digital alternative data tells us so far. Even with a turbulent year, Peloton is still high on the leaderboard in the constantly-growing competitive marketplace and continues to show stability across numerous digital data points. But, we’ll definitely continue to keep an eye on the latest news, on the story being told by the digital data, and on Peloton’s earnings.

Step up your game

Here we focused on Peloton earnings and, as you read, the company’s digital data provides critical pre-earning and intra-quarter insights.

Similarweb tracks data in near real-time with Investor Intelligence. The result: You don’t have to wait for earnings season to see how a company is performing online.

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